State of the Program, 2/15

It's been a while since I've posted anything, and apologies to those hoping to hear more this season. Other (read: paying) opportunities have demanded more of my time. However, I'll post some quick things over the next few days.

Duke is currently 22-4, 10-3 in the ACC. They're ranked #14 by USA Today and #13 by AP. The Devils are #10 in the RPI (accoriding to RealTimeRPI.com) and #11 in Sagarin's ratings. Both of the projected seedings released by the NCAA have shown that Duke will be hosting NCAA tournament games, and I imagine that will stand barring some bad losses. Considering the total chaos the program was in a year ago, what has changed?

In some respects, nothing. Duke's offense remains unchanged: some basic high pick action designed to free up shooters on the wing, some basic actions going to the basket. Simple stuff. The defense shifts between match-up zone and man, with occasional half-court and full-court traps. There are times when the defense will apply active ball pressure, but it's more read-and-react in the zone than anything else. Here are the top ten reasons why this Duke team is playing as well as it is:

1. Offseason coaching additions. Adding a strength and fitness trainer in Ashleigh Beaver for the women's team has made a huge impact on the team's overall level of fitness going into the season, and it may well have had an impact on reducing injuries.

2. The return of Al Brown. After battling illness and a shaky status within the program, Brown is back and Duke looks much better prepared as a result. When Rebecca Greenwell thrice inbounded the ball off the backs of Syracuse players, McCallie noted that this was an Al Brown special.

3. No significant injuries. Frosh Emily Schubert tore her knee prior to the season starting, but she was not going to be a contributor this season anyway. Haley Gorecki was slow to return from her hip injury, until it made sense to simply redshirt her. This has allowed the team to not only figure out roles in the top of the rotation, it's allowed them to expand depth and figure out those roles as well.

4. Frosh becoming sophs. This is especially true of Kyra Lambert, whose ability to run the team has allowed Lexie Brown and Rebecca Greenwell to hunt shots. Lambert has an almost 2:1 assist/turnover ratio and is shooting 40% from three. That said, Crystal Primm is doing a nice job as a wing stopper who likes to attack the basket and Faith Suggs is goofy energy player. They're not just soaking up minutes: they are actually helping to extend leads.

5. Easier schedule. South Carolina and Kentucky both came to Cameron, and the closer match-ups with teams like Syracuse, Louisville, Virginia Tech and Miami were all at home as well. The win over Louisville may have been the most important one of the year, and the fact that it was in Cameron certainly helped.

6. The return of Kendall Cooper. While she's been inconsistent (6 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 38 blocks), there's no question that when focused, Kendall is a great post player. It's all a matter of focus and confidence for her. When she's locked in, she can score and defend against anyone. Her shot-blocking is a huge weapon, especially since she's started to cut down on her fouling.

7. Ducky Power. Leaonna "Ducky" Odom has been a flash of lightning in the front court, as she's attacked the rim, grabbed offensive boards and run the floor faster than anyone since Lindsey Harding. Her range is highly limited on her shot, but she adds a new dimension to the team.She's even starting to adjust to physical opponents by picking her spots and avoiding foul trouble.

8. Help and Recover. To run a good zone, there has to be constant communication. If you don't, then you get wide-open shooters, especially in the left corner. That's killed Duke the last few years. This year, they're still giving up some open shots, but shooters are getting just a little less time to get the ball away. In particular, Duke is doing a much better job zeroing in on hot shooters and forcing lesser shooters to hit shots.  

9. Turnovers are down. Duke's only turning the ball over about 15 times a game. That's a testament to better passing and ballhandling across the boar, but also better communication as well.

10. Lexie Brown. Averaging 18 ppg, 48% from the field, 39% from three and 91% from the foul line, Brown has established herself as a legit ACC player of the year candidate. After a rough start to her season, she has taken over a number of games when opponents were able to shut down all the usual basic aspects of Duke's offense. Given Brown an inch of space to work with, and she will get off a three (the right wing is her favorite spot), attack the rim or zip into the lane for a short jumper.

I predicted the losses to FSU and Notre Dame on the road, though the latter was pretty close as the Irish are vulnerable this year. Wes Moore and NC State know how to dictate tempo against Duke, so their win wasn't a complete shock. Duke really handled a Syracuse squad that features two of the top scorers in the league. Miami is the toughest remaining game, though Wake and UNC shouldn't be discounted on the road. Duke will likely be the #4 seed in the tournament, which would mean meeting FSU in the semifinals, something Duke surely does not want.