Winter break games are usually a slog. The players are dealing with the aftermath of finals, thinking about going home, etc. No one really wants to be there, and it shows. The game against Elon was certainly evidence of that, as the fired-up Phoenix (featuring noted transfer Maddie McCallie) went toe-to-toe with the disinterested Devils. Duke's frontcourt was especially mediocre, especially on the defensive end where frosh Ra'Shika White outscored the entire Duke starting AND reserve frontcourt. McCallie downplayed the emotional component of this game afterwards, blaming the media for building it up. Why she scheduled a game against her daughter is still a mystery.
The Villanova game was interesting because of their ultra-complex offense that involved multiple weaves and screens. It's always fun to see their coach Harry Paretta, one of college basketball's all-time screamers, on the sideline. The years have clearly mellowed him. I remember sitting behind their bench around twenty years ago in Cameron in a sparsely-attended game, and I have never heard a coach--before or since--light into his players so hard and so often. I felt bad for them. Speaking of which, Villanova is where former Duke player Laura Kurz wound up after she transferred. One of the best pure shooters in Duke history, she was otherwise a bad fit for a Gail Goestenkors team built on quickness and versatility. It didn't help that she had a slow release and a low release point. But if she was open...automatic.
The game itself was not well played. Villanova flummoxed Duke with their offensive sets and the Devils had no answer for their shooters getting good looks. The Wildcats always made the extra pass. The problem was that other than Adriana Hahn (6-13 from three) the rest of the team shot 4-28 from distance. They had the shots, but not the shooters. Duke finally made some adjustments and started jamming shooters, but the Wildcats still made the extra pass and got open looks. The big difference is that Lexie Brown and Rebecca Greenwell are playing at a high level and complement each other nicely. Brown hunts her shots relentlessly and Greenwell has added rebounding at a high level to her skill set.
Kentucky was another very important game for Duke. The Devils picked up a crucial win against South Carolina and needed another win against a ranked opponent going into the ACC season to further shore up their NCAA tourney credentials and start to build a case for hosting the first round. Kentucky lost a lot of players, but still returned Evelyn Akhator (18 points vs Duke last year), Maci Morris (9 points), Taylor Murray (4 points), and star guard Makayla Epps (18 points, 8 assists). The Wildcats crushed Miami and dominated Oklahoma, giving them two wins against ranked opponents to date. They also lost in overtime to Arizona State and Louisville, and lost on the road to Colorado. They are a good, solid team, albeit one with weaknesses.
Epps is a penetrator who does not shoot from long range. Akhator and Rice feed off the passes of others when defenses key on shooters and Epps; they do not create their own offense. Morris, Murray and bench players Makenzie Cann & Jessica Hardin are the team's shooters. A few things became quickly apparent about Kentucky. First, if they go up against teams with the same kind of size, their frontcourt can struggle a bit. Second, if their shooters aren't getting good looks and making them, then the Wildcats are an ordinary team. Without the room provided by shooters creating spacing, it's hard for Epps to operate. Kentucky likes to create offense from defense and run as much as possible, but if you take away transition, they can be greatly slowed.
The first four minutes of the game were a disaster for Duke. Neither team ever looked completely comfortable on offense thanks to being so evenly matched in terms of size and quickness, but Duke's rust and lack of focus was evident with three quick turnovers and two fouls on Ducky Odom in the first four minutes of the game. Kentucky went up 8-2, but coach Mark Mitchell was correct in his estimation that if Kentucky had executed better, they could have been up 15-2. The Devils responded with a 13-2 run as Chidom got the ball down low against Akhator and straight-up ate her lunch. All she had to do was post up, feel her position in space relative to her opponent, and then make a quick & decisive move. Kentucky started fronting her a bit more after that and used the stronger Rice to body her out, but Chidom certainly did a lot of damage.
Duke never trailed again. Part of that was Brown carefully choosing her spots and finding cracks in the defense to exploit. She wound up with 24 points and 5 steals, was money from the foul line (8-8) and generally displayed the ability to score whenever needed. Kendall Cooper came off the bench to provide some solid minutes with scores around the basket. Kyra Lambert drilled a three at the end of the second quarter to extend Duke's lead out to five at the half. Every time Kentucky made a shot or looked like they were ready to get back in the game, Duke responded with cool maturity.
The third quarter was an ugly slog that saw Akhator grab five offensive in a flurry of activity, but she couldn't score. Duke pushed the lead out to nine thanks to a trey from Brown and a basket from Odom on a beautiful pass from Chidom. Kentucky fought back, getting to within two points late in the third quarter. This time around, it was Greenwell who pushed the lead, finally getting a trey to drop. The Devils started the fourth quarter on a 10-0 run to put the game away. Kentucky missed ten shots in a row, while Greenwell and Brown went to work. Duke got contributions from everywhere as they were able to attack the lane, and both Odom and Lambert got opportunities. The backbreaker came after Duke got a stop, up by thirteen with six minutes to go. With the shot clock running down, Cooper got off a hook shot in the lane that dropped through. That margin was way too much for a now-exhausted Kentucky team to overcome. The teams pretty much traded baskets the rest of the way.
The game pretty much came down to Duke making more tough shots and scoring in the paint with greater efficiency. Akhator and burly post Alyssa Rice were a combined 0-6 from the floor and 3-8 from the foul line. The Wildcats outrebounded Duke and had a sizable 21-13 edge in points off turnovers. (Duke had a lot of sloppy handoffs when they ran their halfcourt offense, and multiple post players inexplicably brought the ball down low to their waist and had it stripped.) Duke forced a number of turnovers as well, with some of them being boom-boom turnover sequences from one team to the other. Duke won the paint, 30-22, and keeping Epps out of there during the first half was a big win for Duke. Taylor Murray had 16 first half points (including a couple of treys for this 22% shooter from distance) but regressed to the mean in the second half.
Friday, December 30, 2016
Sunday, December 4, 2016
Game Review: Duke vs South Carolina
The bottom line of Duke's win over South Carolina is that Duke was as well-prepared to win this game as I've ever seen them in the McCallie years. The game plan was sound, the substitution patterns were sensible and the players were locked in. This is not to say that this was a perfect game, as Duke had to scratch out baskets without many connecting plays (eight assists and thirty field goals), The Devils had 16 turnovers, and were outrebounded by three. USC had 16 offensive rebounds. That said, there were a season's worth of lucky and unlikely shots that went in, but fortune favors the locked-in. After the game, Rebecca Greenwell said that she had never wanted to win a game more than this win in her life, and considering that she made some key errors in Duke's 51-50 loss to USC in Cameron two years ago, that's understandable. It wasn't just Greenwell, though. Oderah Chidom was as mentally tough as I've ever seen her, mentally dialed in for the entire game.
What hurt USC the most, I think, was the lack of a leader to rally around when things went south. The Gamecocks got some fool's gold in the early going when Duke was jittery and nervous, and it showed in their play. A'Ja Wilson scored nine points in the first five or so minutes as USC did a great job of getting her the ball. Kendall Cooper, as I feared, was erratic and couldn't handle her. Duke turned the ball over six times in the first six minutes. USC was jamming Duke's shooters, and other than Chidom sneaking by the massive Alaina Coates for a layup, Duke looked helpless on offense. USC was up 16-5, and coach Dawn Staley thought it was time to continue to grow a very young and shallow bench, as she sat Wilson and Allisha Gray. After the game, she said that she went against her usual substitution pattern and took out Wilson, and that single decision may have cost them the game. Without Wilson as their fulcrum, USC started to freelance on offense and started to jack up threes. Worse, they started turning the ball over, as the speed of Chidom and Ducky Odom started to catch USC off-balance. Indeed, Duke sped up the game just a half-beat for much of the rest of the game, and USC looked uncomfortable with that pace as they started rushing shots.
Duke scored six straight points and Odom stole the ball from a USC reserve with fourteen seconds to go. Things were not exactly calm out there, but Odom passed the ball to Chidom, who squared up from just outside the three point line and buried the shot. Not exactly how they drew it up for Chidom's first career three, but it couldn't have came at a better time as it made the score 16-14. Chidom needled Greenwell after the game that her career three point shooting percentage was now better than hers (1-2, for 50%).
What was strange was how bad USC looked in the second quarter, especially on the defensive end. This was the first game USC had this year where it felt like the players were playing for three different teams. Kaela Davis was able to get away with shooting whenever she felt like it earlier in the year, because she was sizzling from the field, but this was a game where the many deficits in her game hurt USC. For example, a lack of discipline on the defensive end frequently led USC to leave Greenwell in order to attend to Lexie Brown, which led to Becca catching fire. She had consecutive treys that put Duke up by six halfway through the quarter, while USC was trying to catch up by jacking up treys at the other end instead of patiently getting the ball to Wilson.
While USC's bench was faltering, Duke's bench was doing good things. Odom was everywhere and took advantage of some silly cross-court passes to zoom down the floor for a layup. Her speed was such that no USC player could even begin to close on her. Erin Mathias went toe-to-toe with Coates and Wilson and did well. She blocked Wilson and then had a beautiful one-on-one move to score. She confidently stepped into a jumper to put Duke up by eleven late in the half. Lynee' Belton came in and had an assist and was happy to body up the Gamecocks. Duke had a chance to go up by as many as fifteen points but blew some late baskets, and Coates scored with time running down in the half. Still, Duke led by seven at the half.
The third quarter saw USC tighten up their problems, but Duke had figured out how to defend the post. As I suggested in my preview, they walled off the post and fronted Wilson with Mathias. The impatient USC guards tried to lob the ball over Mathias, but Erin surprised them with her leaping as she came up with several steals and deflections. USC's spacing wasn't great and they didn't have great angles of attack; Staley noted that one extra pass was what was needed to get a good look, but Duke managed to make that hard for them. The Gamecocks did start to hit a few outside shots, but Gray missed multiple shots to bring it under five and Greenwell or Odom found ways to respond. Duke ended the quarter on an 8-1 run as Kyra Lambert hit a big shot and USC was utterly stymied. The Devils carried an unlikely eleven point lead into the fourth quarter.
USC cut into the lead as Davis hit back-to-back treys (her only threes of the game) and USC once again cut the lead to five. They had opportunities to draw closer, but Duke made big defensive play after big defensive play, including Brown taking a charge from Gray and Chidom blocking Wilson. Greenwell hit a three and then nailed another jumper to keep USC at arm's length. Mathias went up and forced a jump ball against Wilson and then later came up with another tip steal fronting Wilson. On one play with Duke up 7, Brown took a short jumper, missed, and Chidom batted at the ball like a volleyball player--and it went in the basket.
Then came a weird sequence. Bianca Cuervas-Moore hit her only three of the game to bring USC within six with 1:42 left. USC was then called for a technical for having six players on the floor when the ball was whistled in, and Greenwell hit both freebies. The Gamecocks never threatened again. Greenwell was magnificent with 29 points, 3 boards and 3 steals. Chidom had 15 points, 8 rebounds and 2 blocks. Wilson wound up with 18 points but only scored nine after the first five minutes of the game. Alaina Coates had just 8 points and 5 rebounds. They put up 26 and 11 combined, less than the 32 and 18 they had been averaging this year. Davis had 14 points on 14 shots and was just 2-9 from three. Gray was solid with 11 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists, but she's still not really the leader type at this moment.
Lambert was sneaky-good with 10 points, including some unlikely makes taken with the shot clock running down. She still pounded the ball too much at times, but she did take care of the ball. Odom had 6 points, 6 rebounds and 5 steals. Mathias had 6 points, 4 boards and 3 steals. Duke wound up winning the points in the paint battle 42-32, and as McCallie said afterward, that was the game. It's the first win by Duke against a top-3 team since 2009. This is a win to hang one's hat on come NCAA tournament time, but Duke will likely need to beat Kentucky as well to begin to feel good about their postseason prospects. Still, this was a solid win against a good but flawed opponent, and the fact is is that picked apart their flaws in a way that prior ranked opponents Ohio State, Texas and Louisville could not.
What hurt USC the most, I think, was the lack of a leader to rally around when things went south. The Gamecocks got some fool's gold in the early going when Duke was jittery and nervous, and it showed in their play. A'Ja Wilson scored nine points in the first five or so minutes as USC did a great job of getting her the ball. Kendall Cooper, as I feared, was erratic and couldn't handle her. Duke turned the ball over six times in the first six minutes. USC was jamming Duke's shooters, and other than Chidom sneaking by the massive Alaina Coates for a layup, Duke looked helpless on offense. USC was up 16-5, and coach Dawn Staley thought it was time to continue to grow a very young and shallow bench, as she sat Wilson and Allisha Gray. After the game, she said that she went against her usual substitution pattern and took out Wilson, and that single decision may have cost them the game. Without Wilson as their fulcrum, USC started to freelance on offense and started to jack up threes. Worse, they started turning the ball over, as the speed of Chidom and Ducky Odom started to catch USC off-balance. Indeed, Duke sped up the game just a half-beat for much of the rest of the game, and USC looked uncomfortable with that pace as they started rushing shots.
Duke scored six straight points and Odom stole the ball from a USC reserve with fourteen seconds to go. Things were not exactly calm out there, but Odom passed the ball to Chidom, who squared up from just outside the three point line and buried the shot. Not exactly how they drew it up for Chidom's first career three, but it couldn't have came at a better time as it made the score 16-14. Chidom needled Greenwell after the game that her career three point shooting percentage was now better than hers (1-2, for 50%).
What was strange was how bad USC looked in the second quarter, especially on the defensive end. This was the first game USC had this year where it felt like the players were playing for three different teams. Kaela Davis was able to get away with shooting whenever she felt like it earlier in the year, because she was sizzling from the field, but this was a game where the many deficits in her game hurt USC. For example, a lack of discipline on the defensive end frequently led USC to leave Greenwell in order to attend to Lexie Brown, which led to Becca catching fire. She had consecutive treys that put Duke up by six halfway through the quarter, while USC was trying to catch up by jacking up treys at the other end instead of patiently getting the ball to Wilson.
While USC's bench was faltering, Duke's bench was doing good things. Odom was everywhere and took advantage of some silly cross-court passes to zoom down the floor for a layup. Her speed was such that no USC player could even begin to close on her. Erin Mathias went toe-to-toe with Coates and Wilson and did well. She blocked Wilson and then had a beautiful one-on-one move to score. She confidently stepped into a jumper to put Duke up by eleven late in the half. Lynee' Belton came in and had an assist and was happy to body up the Gamecocks. Duke had a chance to go up by as many as fifteen points but blew some late baskets, and Coates scored with time running down in the half. Still, Duke led by seven at the half.
The third quarter saw USC tighten up their problems, but Duke had figured out how to defend the post. As I suggested in my preview, they walled off the post and fronted Wilson with Mathias. The impatient USC guards tried to lob the ball over Mathias, but Erin surprised them with her leaping as she came up with several steals and deflections. USC's spacing wasn't great and they didn't have great angles of attack; Staley noted that one extra pass was what was needed to get a good look, but Duke managed to make that hard for them. The Gamecocks did start to hit a few outside shots, but Gray missed multiple shots to bring it under five and Greenwell or Odom found ways to respond. Duke ended the quarter on an 8-1 run as Kyra Lambert hit a big shot and USC was utterly stymied. The Devils carried an unlikely eleven point lead into the fourth quarter.
USC cut into the lead as Davis hit back-to-back treys (her only threes of the game) and USC once again cut the lead to five. They had opportunities to draw closer, but Duke made big defensive play after big defensive play, including Brown taking a charge from Gray and Chidom blocking Wilson. Greenwell hit a three and then nailed another jumper to keep USC at arm's length. Mathias went up and forced a jump ball against Wilson and then later came up with another tip steal fronting Wilson. On one play with Duke up 7, Brown took a short jumper, missed, and Chidom batted at the ball like a volleyball player--and it went in the basket.
Then came a weird sequence. Bianca Cuervas-Moore hit her only three of the game to bring USC within six with 1:42 left. USC was then called for a technical for having six players on the floor when the ball was whistled in, and Greenwell hit both freebies. The Gamecocks never threatened again. Greenwell was magnificent with 29 points, 3 boards and 3 steals. Chidom had 15 points, 8 rebounds and 2 blocks. Wilson wound up with 18 points but only scored nine after the first five minutes of the game. Alaina Coates had just 8 points and 5 rebounds. They put up 26 and 11 combined, less than the 32 and 18 they had been averaging this year. Davis had 14 points on 14 shots and was just 2-9 from three. Gray was solid with 11 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists, but she's still not really the leader type at this moment.
Lambert was sneaky-good with 10 points, including some unlikely makes taken with the shot clock running down. She still pounded the ball too much at times, but she did take care of the ball. Odom had 6 points, 6 rebounds and 5 steals. Mathias had 6 points, 4 boards and 3 steals. Duke wound up winning the points in the paint battle 42-32, and as McCallie said afterward, that was the game. It's the first win by Duke against a top-3 team since 2009. This is a win to hang one's hat on come NCAA tournament time, but Duke will likely need to beat Kentucky as well to begin to feel good about their postseason prospects. Still, this was a solid win against a good but flawed opponent, and the fact is is that picked apart their flaws in a way that prior ranked opponents Ohio State, Texas and Louisville could not.
Friday, December 2, 2016
Thoughts Leading Up To the South Carolina Game
Duke is 8-1 heading into a major challenge with South Carolina. Duke's sole loss against Vanderbilt was also Duke's only game against an RPI top 100 team. Granted, the RPI isn't all that meaningful yet; it's more of a quick indicator. The Devils are currently ranked just #93 with a strength of schedule of #264. It hasn't helped that Penn has struggled a bit out of the gate (a loss to a bad Binghamton team has really hurt them), but only Long Beach State at #123 has resembled a decent win. Vandy is currently ranked #60 in the RPI with new head coach Stephanie White. The grapevine reported last year that she was eager to get into the college coaching ranks after being in the WNBA for a number of years, and if the Duke job had come open, she no doubt would have pounced on it if offered. Interestingly, her former player at Indiana, Joy Cheek, left Ohio State to take an assistant's job at Vandy. It's certainly a better fit for Joy than Ohio State in terms of the student body.
Vandy's tallest player was just 6-1, yet senior forward Marqu'es Webb dominated Duke inside with 13 rebounds. Duke lost for two reasons: 19 turnovers that led to 25 Vandy points and getting outrebounded 43-34, including giving up 18 offensive rebounds to a smaller team. Duke shot 47% and was able to run a bit (24 fast break points), but Vandy clamped down on Duke's shooting and the Devil bigs weren't good enough to make up the difference. Duke seemed ill-prepared to match Vandy's intensity on defense and on the boards, and a team with far inferior talent found a way to win.
This points to Duke's major problem thus far: a lack of post production. Coming into the season, this was a concern with Azura' Stevens moving on to greener pastures, but Duke had four experienced bigs to work with, all of them healthy. Oderah Chidom has been decent with 9 ppg, 7 rpg, 3 bpg and 63% shooting from the floor. However, she's a natural second banana on offense and I doubt that we'll see her scoring improve much; she's giving about as much as she can, given her limitations as a player. Erin Mathias had a solid start but has wound up back on the bench, a worrisome development given her confidence issues. 7 ppg, 5 rpg, 50% shooting from the floor, and 84% shooting from the line have all been solid. However, her outside shot is still spotty and her low-post offense can still be crude. She relies more on movement than one-on-one moves, and when Duke's offense gets stagnant, she is unable to facilitate for herself. Still, she's improved, but is still a role player.
The big disappointments thus far have been Kendall Cooper and Lynee' Belton. To be fair, most opponents have packed the lane with zones to help neutralize Duke's size, but Cooper was supposed to be able to help from the high post. She simply didn't do enough to impact the game against Vandy, and one worries that having a guard-dominant offense featuring players who generally prefer to shoot first and ask questions later is part of the issue. Still, she's looked hesitant and rusty, though there were signs of life in her west coast starts against Pepperdine and her showing against Rutgers. She's currently averaging 6 ppg, 5 rpg and 2 bpg, and those numbers will not get it done against elite opponents if Duke is going to win. Putting her into the starting lineup makes some sense as a sort of put up or shut up move for her, but I worry the general disorganization of Duke's offense on a conceptual level will make it hard for her to thrive. Belton is still coming back from knee problems, and her lack of mobility has been an issue. She's been useless in zones and she has no range on her shot. She's fallen out of the rotation as well. Despite all that, her size and strength make her a potential asset against big opponents.
The guards are performing as expected. Becca Greenwell is still handling the ball way too much; in a better offense, she'd come off screens more for quick shots and score on cuts to the basket. The only time she should have the ball for extended periods is when she's punishing opponents by posting them up--something she's done well against inferior opponents. Lexie Brown is as advertised: a skilled scoring point guard. She can lead the break and find her teammates with some structure, but when things break down she prefers to shoot. Kyra Lambert has a lot of promise as a pure point guard, and I think Duke will see good things happen as her usage rate goes up, but only if she's aggressive and doesn't simply pound the ball on the perimeter. Ducky Odom (how can I call her by anything but her awesome nickname?) is still figuring out how to play, but she's scoring 20 ppg and shooting 54% from the floor (adjusted to forty minutes) despite having few plays called for her. She's leading the team in offensive rebounding, grabbing 3 a game. Crystal Primm and Faith Suggs are afterthoughts in real games at the moment. Primm is still a plus defender, but she averages 4 turnovers a game per 40 minutes.
South Carolina has a very different lineup than last year, as senior leader Tiffany Mitchell and many other veterans have moved on. The team is built around 6-5 A'Ja Wilson and 6-4 Alaina Coates. Duke fans will remember Wilson hitting the winning shot against Duke in Cameron two seasons ago and outdueling Stevens in Columbia last year. She's putting up 17 and 6 this year as USC's leading scorer. Coates is the team's muscle, averaging 15 and 12 and shooting 70% from the floor. The senior sparkplug is Bianca Cuevas-Moore (7 ppg, 2 apg), a glue player who specializes in defense. Frosh Tyasha Harris and Mikiah Herbert Harrigan (now and forever MHH) come off the bench and help a bit. The two most interesting pieces are familiar ones for Duke fans: former Georgia Tech guard Kaela Davis and former UNC guard Allisha Gray. It's funny that Gray played for a season with a talented but sometimes selfish star in Diamond DeShields, and now she's playing with DeShields' prep arch-enemy in Davis. Let's just say when they played on the same team, it was less than pleasant for everyone involved.
Davis is tricky player to evaluate. There is a tendency, and I have certainly been guilty of this, to talk about all of the things she doesn't do. At 6-2, she doesn't rebound enough. She doesn't pass or play defense. She shoots way too much and takes bad shots. She's soft and doesn't attack the basket enough, preferring jump shots. All of that is still sort of true, but she's now a fourth-year junior and is clearly more mature. Not only that, but she has legitimate scorers around her for the first time since her frosh year at Tech--especially in the post. I think she learned her lesson when she shot all she wanted as a soph at GT, but her team was terrible. Davis is averaging 11 shots a game and 5 treys, but she's a remarkable 15-30 from distance. She's actually starting to pass and actually leads the team with 3 dishes a game, and she's averaging 6 boards a game. Essentially, she's the long-range weapon that coach Dawn Staley has always wished for. Obviously Mitchell filled that role for the Gamecocks for four years, but she was an average shooter who was better attacking the basket. Davis is a zone-killer who can create her own shot and has a willing post in Wilson who will relocate the ball to her. In other words, while Davis is still somewhat limited, you can't overlook her pure scoring ability, especially on a team that's otherwise balanced and needs someone to launch shots.
Gray is a perfect teammate for her, given her overall toughness and cleverness but also her willingness to defer. Gray is a player who can disappear at times but who will also make a key pass or grab a big-time steal. Unlike Davis, who is still shaky inside the three point line (around 33%), Gray is a crafty driver who is struggling from long range (24%). If she starts to get her long-range stroke going, USC will be tough to beat.
Defensively, Duke needs to wall off the paint. Cooper and Chidom have the size to defend USC's bigs, but they will have to be careful with regard to fouls. That's why playing some zone variants will be so important. I feel like Duke is ill-suited to play much match-up zone against USC, because Davis will just flash to the corner and drain open jump shots all game long. What would be preferable is a box-and-one on Davis on certain possessions, and a triangle-and-two on Davis and Gray on others. Rebecca Greenwell is certainly big enough to chase around Davis (who's more of a glider than a runner), and if she gets in her face and dares Davis to drive, that will be to Duke's advantage. On the other hand, you want a quick player to stay in front of Gray like Brown or Lambert (they can take turns covering her), daring her to shoot and keeping her out of the lane. Primm can provide a bit of relief for Greenwell in chasing Davis. Any kind of passive defense against those two guards will result in pain for Duke, but they have to understand their strengths and weaknesses at all times.
Defensively, I think Duke could have some success against USC if they play the right. It's on offense that the questions begin. There is no question that USC will play forty minutes of man-to-man defense, a look very few teams have used against Duke this year while playing real minutes. If I'm Coates and Wilson, I would relish a battle with Chidom and Cooper, because neither of the latter is adept at generating their own points. As such, USC will turn up the ball pressure in the halfcourt, jamming Duke's shooters in the halfcourt and forcing them to make decisions with the ball. Davis doesn't have to play great defense against Greenwell; all she needs to do is stay in front of her and keep her hands up. Becca tends to struggle against bigger defenders. Gray and Cuevas-Moore match up well with Lambert and Brown, two smallish guards. Lambert is a big key in this game. If she can use USC's pressure against them and attack the basket successfully, that will open things up for her other teammates. Duke cannot afford to have Lambert disappear for long stretches, as she has been known to do in big games. If she does, then Greenwell and Brown will start taking bad shots, and I'm not sure Duke will have a chance to earn a lot of second shots against USC's bigs.
A potential x-factor for Duke is Belton. In a halfcourt game, she has a chance to post up and use her low center of gravity to get good shots. I don't think she has a counter-move if USC stops her first move, but honestly I see Belton as a player who can clean up on the offensive boards through sheer strength and effort. This might be her last chance to prove herself against an elite opponent and prove her worth to the team. Odom is another x-factor, as she can get her own shots whenever she feels like and could force USC to go small if she's effective as a power wing.
The Devils have a lot of the same bad habits that every team has had under McCallie. They are slow to rotate in help-and-recover; they are sloppy with the ball, in part because the offense is highly predictable; they foul a lot because players don't always understand where they are supposed to be. When they are able to clean that up, they are often hard to stop. Good teams exploit these weaknesses. USC is a good team but not yet a great one, but at their best they can absolutely destroy teams with their scoring balance. They destroyed Louisville inside and outdueled Ohio State and Texas, but they still have some work to do, like developing their bench. That said, they are one of the few teams in the country who have the scoring punch to beat the likes of Notre Dame and UConn. Without an unstoppable big gun like Azura' Stevens, Duke simply doesn't have enough superstar power to beat USC. Their only chance is their puncher's chance with shooters like Brown & Greenwell, the penetration of Lambert and Staley's stubbornness with regard to playing zone. I expect USC to win by about a dozen points.
Vandy's tallest player was just 6-1, yet senior forward Marqu'es Webb dominated Duke inside with 13 rebounds. Duke lost for two reasons: 19 turnovers that led to 25 Vandy points and getting outrebounded 43-34, including giving up 18 offensive rebounds to a smaller team. Duke shot 47% and was able to run a bit (24 fast break points), but Vandy clamped down on Duke's shooting and the Devil bigs weren't good enough to make up the difference. Duke seemed ill-prepared to match Vandy's intensity on defense and on the boards, and a team with far inferior talent found a way to win.
This points to Duke's major problem thus far: a lack of post production. Coming into the season, this was a concern with Azura' Stevens moving on to greener pastures, but Duke had four experienced bigs to work with, all of them healthy. Oderah Chidom has been decent with 9 ppg, 7 rpg, 3 bpg and 63% shooting from the floor. However, she's a natural second banana on offense and I doubt that we'll see her scoring improve much; she's giving about as much as she can, given her limitations as a player. Erin Mathias had a solid start but has wound up back on the bench, a worrisome development given her confidence issues. 7 ppg, 5 rpg, 50% shooting from the floor, and 84% shooting from the line have all been solid. However, her outside shot is still spotty and her low-post offense can still be crude. She relies more on movement than one-on-one moves, and when Duke's offense gets stagnant, she is unable to facilitate for herself. Still, she's improved, but is still a role player.
The big disappointments thus far have been Kendall Cooper and Lynee' Belton. To be fair, most opponents have packed the lane with zones to help neutralize Duke's size, but Cooper was supposed to be able to help from the high post. She simply didn't do enough to impact the game against Vandy, and one worries that having a guard-dominant offense featuring players who generally prefer to shoot first and ask questions later is part of the issue. Still, she's looked hesitant and rusty, though there were signs of life in her west coast starts against Pepperdine and her showing against Rutgers. She's currently averaging 6 ppg, 5 rpg and 2 bpg, and those numbers will not get it done against elite opponents if Duke is going to win. Putting her into the starting lineup makes some sense as a sort of put up or shut up move for her, but I worry the general disorganization of Duke's offense on a conceptual level will make it hard for her to thrive. Belton is still coming back from knee problems, and her lack of mobility has been an issue. She's been useless in zones and she has no range on her shot. She's fallen out of the rotation as well. Despite all that, her size and strength make her a potential asset against big opponents.
The guards are performing as expected. Becca Greenwell is still handling the ball way too much; in a better offense, she'd come off screens more for quick shots and score on cuts to the basket. The only time she should have the ball for extended periods is when she's punishing opponents by posting them up--something she's done well against inferior opponents. Lexie Brown is as advertised: a skilled scoring point guard. She can lead the break and find her teammates with some structure, but when things break down she prefers to shoot. Kyra Lambert has a lot of promise as a pure point guard, and I think Duke will see good things happen as her usage rate goes up, but only if she's aggressive and doesn't simply pound the ball on the perimeter. Ducky Odom (how can I call her by anything but her awesome nickname?) is still figuring out how to play, but she's scoring 20 ppg and shooting 54% from the floor (adjusted to forty minutes) despite having few plays called for her. She's leading the team in offensive rebounding, grabbing 3 a game. Crystal Primm and Faith Suggs are afterthoughts in real games at the moment. Primm is still a plus defender, but she averages 4 turnovers a game per 40 minutes.
South Carolina has a very different lineup than last year, as senior leader Tiffany Mitchell and many other veterans have moved on. The team is built around 6-5 A'Ja Wilson and 6-4 Alaina Coates. Duke fans will remember Wilson hitting the winning shot against Duke in Cameron two seasons ago and outdueling Stevens in Columbia last year. She's putting up 17 and 6 this year as USC's leading scorer. Coates is the team's muscle, averaging 15 and 12 and shooting 70% from the floor. The senior sparkplug is Bianca Cuevas-Moore (7 ppg, 2 apg), a glue player who specializes in defense. Frosh Tyasha Harris and Mikiah Herbert Harrigan (now and forever MHH) come off the bench and help a bit. The two most interesting pieces are familiar ones for Duke fans: former Georgia Tech guard Kaela Davis and former UNC guard Allisha Gray. It's funny that Gray played for a season with a talented but sometimes selfish star in Diamond DeShields, and now she's playing with DeShields' prep arch-enemy in Davis. Let's just say when they played on the same team, it was less than pleasant for everyone involved.
Davis is tricky player to evaluate. There is a tendency, and I have certainly been guilty of this, to talk about all of the things she doesn't do. At 6-2, she doesn't rebound enough. She doesn't pass or play defense. She shoots way too much and takes bad shots. She's soft and doesn't attack the basket enough, preferring jump shots. All of that is still sort of true, but she's now a fourth-year junior and is clearly more mature. Not only that, but she has legitimate scorers around her for the first time since her frosh year at Tech--especially in the post. I think she learned her lesson when she shot all she wanted as a soph at GT, but her team was terrible. Davis is averaging 11 shots a game and 5 treys, but she's a remarkable 15-30 from distance. She's actually starting to pass and actually leads the team with 3 dishes a game, and she's averaging 6 boards a game. Essentially, she's the long-range weapon that coach Dawn Staley has always wished for. Obviously Mitchell filled that role for the Gamecocks for four years, but she was an average shooter who was better attacking the basket. Davis is a zone-killer who can create her own shot and has a willing post in Wilson who will relocate the ball to her. In other words, while Davis is still somewhat limited, you can't overlook her pure scoring ability, especially on a team that's otherwise balanced and needs someone to launch shots.
Gray is a perfect teammate for her, given her overall toughness and cleverness but also her willingness to defer. Gray is a player who can disappear at times but who will also make a key pass or grab a big-time steal. Unlike Davis, who is still shaky inside the three point line (around 33%), Gray is a crafty driver who is struggling from long range (24%). If she starts to get her long-range stroke going, USC will be tough to beat.
Defensively, Duke needs to wall off the paint. Cooper and Chidom have the size to defend USC's bigs, but they will have to be careful with regard to fouls. That's why playing some zone variants will be so important. I feel like Duke is ill-suited to play much match-up zone against USC, because Davis will just flash to the corner and drain open jump shots all game long. What would be preferable is a box-and-one on Davis on certain possessions, and a triangle-and-two on Davis and Gray on others. Rebecca Greenwell is certainly big enough to chase around Davis (who's more of a glider than a runner), and if she gets in her face and dares Davis to drive, that will be to Duke's advantage. On the other hand, you want a quick player to stay in front of Gray like Brown or Lambert (they can take turns covering her), daring her to shoot and keeping her out of the lane. Primm can provide a bit of relief for Greenwell in chasing Davis. Any kind of passive defense against those two guards will result in pain for Duke, but they have to understand their strengths and weaknesses at all times.
Defensively, I think Duke could have some success against USC if they play the right. It's on offense that the questions begin. There is no question that USC will play forty minutes of man-to-man defense, a look very few teams have used against Duke this year while playing real minutes. If I'm Coates and Wilson, I would relish a battle with Chidom and Cooper, because neither of the latter is adept at generating their own points. As such, USC will turn up the ball pressure in the halfcourt, jamming Duke's shooters in the halfcourt and forcing them to make decisions with the ball. Davis doesn't have to play great defense against Greenwell; all she needs to do is stay in front of her and keep her hands up. Becca tends to struggle against bigger defenders. Gray and Cuevas-Moore match up well with Lambert and Brown, two smallish guards. Lambert is a big key in this game. If she can use USC's pressure against them and attack the basket successfully, that will open things up for her other teammates. Duke cannot afford to have Lambert disappear for long stretches, as she has been known to do in big games. If she does, then Greenwell and Brown will start taking bad shots, and I'm not sure Duke will have a chance to earn a lot of second shots against USC's bigs.
A potential x-factor for Duke is Belton. In a halfcourt game, she has a chance to post up and use her low center of gravity to get good shots. I don't think she has a counter-move if USC stops her first move, but honestly I see Belton as a player who can clean up on the offensive boards through sheer strength and effort. This might be her last chance to prove herself against an elite opponent and prove her worth to the team. Odom is another x-factor, as she can get her own shots whenever she feels like and could force USC to go small if she's effective as a power wing.
The Devils have a lot of the same bad habits that every team has had under McCallie. They are slow to rotate in help-and-recover; they are sloppy with the ball, in part because the offense is highly predictable; they foul a lot because players don't always understand where they are supposed to be. When they are able to clean that up, they are often hard to stop. Good teams exploit these weaknesses. USC is a good team but not yet a great one, but at their best they can absolutely destroy teams with their scoring balance. They destroyed Louisville inside and outdueled Ohio State and Texas, but they still have some work to do, like developing their bench. That said, they are one of the few teams in the country who have the scoring punch to beat the likes of Notre Dame and UConn. Without an unstoppable big gun like Azura' Stevens, Duke simply doesn't have enough superstar power to beat USC. Their only chance is their puncher's chance with shooters like Brown & Greenwell, the penetration of Lambert and Staley's stubbornness with regard to playing zone. I expect USC to win by about a dozen points.
Monday, November 14, 2016
Game Review: Duke vs Penn
As I noted in my first post, I wanted to see Duke play Penn before I made an initial evaluation. For those who may have forgotten, Penn wound up being Duke's best victory last year in a season where Duke was close but no cigar against good teams. In that game, Duke trailed by seven late in the game before force of nature Azura' Stevens took over and rescued the Devils. The loss of Stevens is hard to put into words for Duke, as she had the potential to be one of Duke's best players ever, given her skill set and aggressiveness. Losing an offensive force and competitor like Angela Salvadores also hurt, and it's painful to think how good Duke could have been if they were here along the rest of the talent of the team.
That said, this Duke team immediately showed a lot of potential in the Blue-White game. They are healthy, for starters. They are in far better shape as a team now than they have been in recent years. I attribute that to the new coaching hires over the summer, including a strength & conditioning specialist hired for the women as well as a physical therapist. Role players like Erin Mathias looked more fluid and confident, while the now-sophomores all looked improved. Having the experience and leadership of Lexie Brown, despite a bit of rust, is obviously making a big difference, and the return of Kendall Cooper certainly helps the frontcourt. Playing against Charleston and Liberty revealed that when Duke is playing against small opponents who can't counter with much speed, Duke will pound them inside. Penn would be a different challenge.
Returning every player of note from last year's Ivy League champions, the Quakers were looking to make a statement behind their excellent front court of 6-3 Sydney (niece of Steve) Stipanovich and 6-3 Michelle Nwokedi. Stipanovich is a classic finesse college center: good range out to about 15', solid positional rebounder and shotblocker, and somewhat stiff under the basket. She's a very effective college player who has likely reached her ceiling in terms of ability. On the other hand, Nwokedi clearly has a future in the W, thanks to her slowly getting stronger and extending the range on her shot. That range makes her nasty head fake effective, and her long & quick first step means that if an opponent bites on that fake, Nwokedi is going right to the hoop. What was more impressive was Nwokedi's feet in the post; her agility is what allowed her to go up against players who were as big as she was and find ways to score. Her dropstep is baffling, and the considerable width of her shoulders allows her to open up spaces just a crack so she can slip through. Duke opted not to double-team her, which was probably a wise decision considering how many shooters the Quakers have. Duke conceded the three for the most part, and Nwokedi was 3-6 from distance to help keep Penn in the game.
The Duke starting lineup with senior Oderah Chidom, junior Erin Mathias, redshirt junior Rebecca Greenwell, redshirt junior Lexie Brown and sophomore Kyra Lambert. Statistically speaking, this was Duke's second-best lineup on the floor (more on that later), and that's thanks in large part to the touch and awareness that Mathias demonstrated. When Mathias was in the high post, she was able to exploit the hole in Penn's shifting 2-3 zone and hit cutters going to the hoop. She was open for some shots of her own, but she didn't look as comfortable shooting here as she did playing with a big lead. In the first couple of minutes of the game, Lambert hit a three, stole the inbounds pass, scored and got fouled. Duke was up 6-0 in ten seconds. After that, treys from Brown and Greenwell helped push the lead to 13-0 against a stunned Penn team. The Quakers prefer a slow-paced, half-court game, but they were forced to use a 2-2-1 press for much of the game. The press was there more to annoy and slow Duke down than to generate turnovers, but the Devils were well-prepared for the press, using Mathias as a press breaker in the middle and then handing off to one of three guards who could really handle the ball.
Penn was able to cut into the lead a few times, but timely Duke baskets (including a trio of treys that pushed the lead to 19) halted their progress each time. Duke was frustrated trying to set up their superiority in the post in terms of scoring, as Penn was able to block shots at the rim or else force awkward push shots. Chidom and Mathias countered by working like crazy on the boards (with 14 and 5, respectively), but Duke had only 32 points in the paint. Penn used a weird 2-3 zone hybrid with a lot of man principles, and Duke had trouble dealing with it straight up. When the Devils moved the ball and cut to the hoop with passes from the wing or high post, they were able to solve that overplay a little.
For the most part, Duke looked composed and confident in a way they didn't last year. They played to win instead of trying to simply avoid losing. As I noted earlier, Brown was a big part of that, but the players seemed to be playing off of each other nicely in general. Things simply looked more cohesive, and I attribute a lot of that to the upperclass leadership in general.
The most interesting Duke lineup in this game, and the most successful at +11, was the "speed kills" grouping of Chidom, frosh Leaonna Odom, Greenwell, Lambert and Brown. This is a high-octane, space-and-pace group that can run with anyone in the country and surrounds a very good defender in Chidom with four shooters who can also attack the basket.
A few player comments:
Chidom: She's the same player as always: quick, aggressive and sometimes prone to careless errors. When she's dialed in like she was in this game, she's a rebounding machine who can defend. Some of her cuts to the basket were simply gorgeous, and she even uncorked a nice mid-range baseline jumper.
Mathias: Anyone who's watched her play before will be shocked at how solid she looks. Defense, rebounding, passing and screening...all that good glue stuff is there. She's still stiff as a scorer and her high center of gravity means she's not so great at posting up, but if she can hone that mid-range jumper, she will play her role perfectly.
Greenwell: Becca's in great shape and is looking to dominate. She definitely has the size to play on the wing, and I like the way she's backing down smaller opponents. Her court awareness is a bit on the spacey side at times; she drove into the lane and didn't detect a player coming up from behind her to swipe the ball. She's ideally a top complementary player instead of a first-option star.
Brown: In blowouts, she was clearly trying to set up everyone else and thought about her own offense second, which made her look especially rusty. In a real game, her competitive instincts took over and she hit a lot of big shots. Her ability to penetrate & create is incredibly important, especially because of her great touch. She's got a bit of swagger to her game that pumped up her teammates. She is not a prototypical past-first point guard, but she is rather a new-school scoring point. She will pass the ball and can do it well (her pass to Greenwell in a fast break was perfect in its precision and lack of fussiness), but she won't hesitate to load up and shoot from anywhere.
Lambert: Made a leap similar to Mathias. Her ball usage was shockingly low considering her productivity in this game, and she certainly could and should have shot the ball well. I think she's probably just trying to play off of her trigger-happy backcourt mates, but she's demonstrated a better and deeper shot and better body control, especially when it comes to shifting speeds. She's not going to fool anyone with a head fake or anything, but she's not the same 0-60, north-south player from a year ago.
Odom: One thing that getting the Duke media guide has revealed is that Odom has a great nickname, possibly the best in Duke history: "Ducky". She's like a snake looking to uncoil herself on the floor, waiting for the right time to strike. She has a slender upper body (and I'm not sure how much mass she can effectively put on), but her first step is absolutely deadly. This is a smooth wing Duke hasn't had a in a long time. She can create her own shot, attack the rim and get fouled. She also sometimes gets lost in the offensive shuffle and isn't always being as assertive as she needs to be. This is a player whom I sense will be streaky her entire career, but when she gets hot, the team should clear out and let her go to work. She wants to play defense and be a good teammate but is finding out how to do both at the moment. Odom had a highlight-reel block from behind on one play, and she's relentless on the offensive boards because of her quickness. She's a wild card for this year; she needs to be coached up and given space to make mistakes.
Primm: The coaches are occasionally using Primm at the point, and that just is a poor use of her abilities. I get it--trying to add to her skillset is important, considering how many point guards Duke has lost over the past few years. She's most definitely a "In Case of Emergency Only" option, and I was alarmed to see her get an audition to do this in a real game. Offensive, Primm needs to have an extremely low usage rate in order to be effective: quick bounce pass, quick cuts, quick shots from mid-range, stickbacks, etc. Every second she is dribbling the ball and trying to go into the lane is a turnover waiting to happen, especially against bigger opponents. On the other hand, her defensive instincts are in the upper echelon of Duke players I've seen. She came up with consecutive, huge steals that blunted Penn's last-gasp comeback hopes. Ideally, I'd love to see Primm play with at least one other ballhandler at all times in order to maximize her strengths, especially since she can play the four in a pinch when Duke goes small.
Belton: When Lynee' takes her time, sets up down low, uses her base to create space and then uses her advantages to attack, she is a tough player. Her lack of mobility hurt her against Penn's sticky zone, as did her lack of shooting. She will play better against other opponents.
Cooper: Kendall looked great in the early going this year, busting out a solid jump-hook and hitting shots with authority. She was -6 in this game, thanks to fouls and an inability to establish herself as an offense threat. Penn's size and bigs neutralized her and Kendall compounded the problem with fouls. Again, I think she will be effective against other opponents. Like Belton and Brown, there's still a lot of rust on her game.
Suggs: Faith more-or-less looks like the same player from a year ago. She can do two things well: run the floor and hit the open three. Duke has plenty of shooters, so I don't see her getting off the bench except for at the ends of halves, in blowouts, and/or in case of foul trouble/injury.
Gorecki: Haley is still recovering from hip surgery. Expect her back in late December.
That said, this Duke team immediately showed a lot of potential in the Blue-White game. They are healthy, for starters. They are in far better shape as a team now than they have been in recent years. I attribute that to the new coaching hires over the summer, including a strength & conditioning specialist hired for the women as well as a physical therapist. Role players like Erin Mathias looked more fluid and confident, while the now-sophomores all looked improved. Having the experience and leadership of Lexie Brown, despite a bit of rust, is obviously making a big difference, and the return of Kendall Cooper certainly helps the frontcourt. Playing against Charleston and Liberty revealed that when Duke is playing against small opponents who can't counter with much speed, Duke will pound them inside. Penn would be a different challenge.
Returning every player of note from last year's Ivy League champions, the Quakers were looking to make a statement behind their excellent front court of 6-3 Sydney (niece of Steve) Stipanovich and 6-3 Michelle Nwokedi. Stipanovich is a classic finesse college center: good range out to about 15', solid positional rebounder and shotblocker, and somewhat stiff under the basket. She's a very effective college player who has likely reached her ceiling in terms of ability. On the other hand, Nwokedi clearly has a future in the W, thanks to her slowly getting stronger and extending the range on her shot. That range makes her nasty head fake effective, and her long & quick first step means that if an opponent bites on that fake, Nwokedi is going right to the hoop. What was more impressive was Nwokedi's feet in the post; her agility is what allowed her to go up against players who were as big as she was and find ways to score. Her dropstep is baffling, and the considerable width of her shoulders allows her to open up spaces just a crack so she can slip through. Duke opted not to double-team her, which was probably a wise decision considering how many shooters the Quakers have. Duke conceded the three for the most part, and Nwokedi was 3-6 from distance to help keep Penn in the game.
The Duke starting lineup with senior Oderah Chidom, junior Erin Mathias, redshirt junior Rebecca Greenwell, redshirt junior Lexie Brown and sophomore Kyra Lambert. Statistically speaking, this was Duke's second-best lineup on the floor (more on that later), and that's thanks in large part to the touch and awareness that Mathias demonstrated. When Mathias was in the high post, she was able to exploit the hole in Penn's shifting 2-3 zone and hit cutters going to the hoop. She was open for some shots of her own, but she didn't look as comfortable shooting here as she did playing with a big lead. In the first couple of minutes of the game, Lambert hit a three, stole the inbounds pass, scored and got fouled. Duke was up 6-0 in ten seconds. After that, treys from Brown and Greenwell helped push the lead to 13-0 against a stunned Penn team. The Quakers prefer a slow-paced, half-court game, but they were forced to use a 2-2-1 press for much of the game. The press was there more to annoy and slow Duke down than to generate turnovers, but the Devils were well-prepared for the press, using Mathias as a press breaker in the middle and then handing off to one of three guards who could really handle the ball.
Penn was able to cut into the lead a few times, but timely Duke baskets (including a trio of treys that pushed the lead to 19) halted their progress each time. Duke was frustrated trying to set up their superiority in the post in terms of scoring, as Penn was able to block shots at the rim or else force awkward push shots. Chidom and Mathias countered by working like crazy on the boards (with 14 and 5, respectively), but Duke had only 32 points in the paint. Penn used a weird 2-3 zone hybrid with a lot of man principles, and Duke had trouble dealing with it straight up. When the Devils moved the ball and cut to the hoop with passes from the wing or high post, they were able to solve that overplay a little.
For the most part, Duke looked composed and confident in a way they didn't last year. They played to win instead of trying to simply avoid losing. As I noted earlier, Brown was a big part of that, but the players seemed to be playing off of each other nicely in general. Things simply looked more cohesive, and I attribute a lot of that to the upperclass leadership in general.
The most interesting Duke lineup in this game, and the most successful at +11, was the "speed kills" grouping of Chidom, frosh Leaonna Odom, Greenwell, Lambert and Brown. This is a high-octane, space-and-pace group that can run with anyone in the country and surrounds a very good defender in Chidom with four shooters who can also attack the basket.
A few player comments:
Chidom: She's the same player as always: quick, aggressive and sometimes prone to careless errors. When she's dialed in like she was in this game, she's a rebounding machine who can defend. Some of her cuts to the basket were simply gorgeous, and she even uncorked a nice mid-range baseline jumper.
Mathias: Anyone who's watched her play before will be shocked at how solid she looks. Defense, rebounding, passing and screening...all that good glue stuff is there. She's still stiff as a scorer and her high center of gravity means she's not so great at posting up, but if she can hone that mid-range jumper, she will play her role perfectly.
Greenwell: Becca's in great shape and is looking to dominate. She definitely has the size to play on the wing, and I like the way she's backing down smaller opponents. Her court awareness is a bit on the spacey side at times; she drove into the lane and didn't detect a player coming up from behind her to swipe the ball. She's ideally a top complementary player instead of a first-option star.
Brown: In blowouts, she was clearly trying to set up everyone else and thought about her own offense second, which made her look especially rusty. In a real game, her competitive instincts took over and she hit a lot of big shots. Her ability to penetrate & create is incredibly important, especially because of her great touch. She's got a bit of swagger to her game that pumped up her teammates. She is not a prototypical past-first point guard, but she is rather a new-school scoring point. She will pass the ball and can do it well (her pass to Greenwell in a fast break was perfect in its precision and lack of fussiness), but she won't hesitate to load up and shoot from anywhere.
Lambert: Made a leap similar to Mathias. Her ball usage was shockingly low considering her productivity in this game, and she certainly could and should have shot the ball well. I think she's probably just trying to play off of her trigger-happy backcourt mates, but she's demonstrated a better and deeper shot and better body control, especially when it comes to shifting speeds. She's not going to fool anyone with a head fake or anything, but she's not the same 0-60, north-south player from a year ago.
Odom: One thing that getting the Duke media guide has revealed is that Odom has a great nickname, possibly the best in Duke history: "Ducky". She's like a snake looking to uncoil herself on the floor, waiting for the right time to strike. She has a slender upper body (and I'm not sure how much mass she can effectively put on), but her first step is absolutely deadly. This is a smooth wing Duke hasn't had a in a long time. She can create her own shot, attack the rim and get fouled. She also sometimes gets lost in the offensive shuffle and isn't always being as assertive as she needs to be. This is a player whom I sense will be streaky her entire career, but when she gets hot, the team should clear out and let her go to work. She wants to play defense and be a good teammate but is finding out how to do both at the moment. Odom had a highlight-reel block from behind on one play, and she's relentless on the offensive boards because of her quickness. She's a wild card for this year; she needs to be coached up and given space to make mistakes.
Primm: The coaches are occasionally using Primm at the point, and that just is a poor use of her abilities. I get it--trying to add to her skillset is important, considering how many point guards Duke has lost over the past few years. She's most definitely a "In Case of Emergency Only" option, and I was alarmed to see her get an audition to do this in a real game. Offensive, Primm needs to have an extremely low usage rate in order to be effective: quick bounce pass, quick cuts, quick shots from mid-range, stickbacks, etc. Every second she is dribbling the ball and trying to go into the lane is a turnover waiting to happen, especially against bigger opponents. On the other hand, her defensive instincts are in the upper echelon of Duke players I've seen. She came up with consecutive, huge steals that blunted Penn's last-gasp comeback hopes. Ideally, I'd love to see Primm play with at least one other ballhandler at all times in order to maximize her strengths, especially since she can play the four in a pinch when Duke goes small.
Belton: When Lynee' takes her time, sets up down low, uses her base to create space and then uses her advantages to attack, she is a tough player. Her lack of mobility hurt her against Penn's sticky zone, as did her lack of shooting. She will play better against other opponents.
Cooper: Kendall looked great in the early going this year, busting out a solid jump-hook and hitting shots with authority. She was -6 in this game, thanks to fouls and an inability to establish herself as an offense threat. Penn's size and bigs neutralized her and Kendall compounded the problem with fouls. Again, I think she will be effective against other opponents. Like Belton and Brown, there's still a lot of rust on her game.
Suggs: Faith more-or-less looks like the same player from a year ago. She can do two things well: run the floor and hit the open three. Duke has plenty of shooters, so I don't see her getting off the bench except for at the ends of halves, in blowouts, and/or in case of foul trouble/injury.
Gorecki: Haley is still recovering from hip surgery. Expect her back in late December.
Welcome To DWB Chalk Talk
Welcome to Duke Women's Basketball Chalk Talk! My name is Rob Clough, and for the past decade I've been working with Orin Day at our dwhoops.com. For reasons I think any fan who follows the Duke program can figure out, Orin has decided to take a step back for the foreseeable future. However, I've decided to keep covering the program, because I want to give the players on this team the same kind of attention I've been giving to Duke Women's Basketball since 1995.
I'll have a post up later today discussing early-season trends for each player as well as my thoughts on the Duke-Penn game. There's a donation button up for anyone who cares to contribute. Thanks for reading!
I'll have a post up later today discussing early-season trends for each player as well as my thoughts on the Duke-Penn game. There's a donation button up for anyone who cares to contribute. Thanks for reading!
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